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中国股市周期波动中的均值回归
Mean Reversion in the Cyclical Movement of Chinese Stock Market
 [PDF]

, 皓贤
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2015, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2015.51002
Abstract:
均值回归指资产价格倾向于围绕平均值波动。本文选用平均市盈率作为中国股市的估值指标,考察其在1993年至2014年之间的周期波动情况。分析结果表明均值回归的规律性在中国股市也是有效的。本文还使用均值回归的方法,以历史的市盈率和上市公司的业绩增长率为基础,对中国股市做预测,认为中国股市本轮的牛市如果能延续三年到五年,上海指数的上涨目标可以达到16,000至20,000点。
Mean reversion is the assumption that assets prices tend to fluctuate around mean value. This essay uses the average PE ratio as the indicator of valuation of Chinese stock market and analyzes its cyclical movement during 1993 and 2014. Our research indicates that mean reversion is effective in Chinese stock market. This essay also tries to forecast the market, using mean reversion as a tool, based on the historical data of PE ratio and growth rate of Chinese listed companies. It is estimated that Shanghai Index will rise to the range of 16,000 - 20,000, on the consumption that the current bullish market will last for 3 or 5 years.
关于中国资本市场有效性的实证研究
An Empirical Study on the Efficiency of Stock Markets of China
 [PDF]

潘俨,
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2012, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2012.23011
Abstract:
过去十年,随着QFII的引入、开放式基金的扩容、上市公司数量的倍数增增加。中国证券市场在制度建设和规模上有了迅速的发展。由于博弈的因素和博弈资金的增多,证券市场经常出现结构性风险,令短线投资者即使在大盘没有出现明显波动的情况下也亏损累累。本文拟以实证分析方法,比较中国与英国股票市场的有效性,意在分析不同成熟阶段市场之间的特性与共性,希望为投资者的策略制定提供一些参考。
During last decade, Chinese securities market has developed rapidly both in institutional im- provement and scale, as the practice of QFII was introduced, much more new open-end funds were set up and the quantity of listed companies was more than doubled. However, behind the fluctuation of index, the in- creasing number of gambling factors and volume of gambling funds have intensified the structural risk in the market, and caused many short run investors lose money, even though the index has not shown enormous fluctuating, especially in the past two years. Applying empirical study methodology, this paper aims to ana- lyze the features and general characters of fluctuations at certain stages of maturity, by comparing the effi- ciency of stock markets of ChinaandUK, in the hope of bringing some enlightenments to investors in defin- ing their strategy.
珠海发展金融业优劣势分析及发展战略探讨
The SWOT Analysis of Zhuhai Financial Industry and Its Development Strategy
 [PDF]

王东,
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2014, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2014.42004
Abstract:
本文从全国市场化改革的背景出发,用国际产业理论作为指导,详细分析了珠海发展金融业的优劣势,探讨珠海市如何利用其比邻深港澳这一特殊地域优势来设计其产业发展战略。在与深港澳的比较中,不难发现,珠海发展金融业的基础薄弱,不具备与它们直接竞争的优势。珠海应该甘当香港和深圳的配角,重点发展其他产业,走互补型和差异化的发展之路。
Under the background of national market-oriented reform, the theory of international industrial is used as a guideline. This article analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of Zhuhai financial industry environments and discusses how to use the special geographical advantage as the closest neighbor of Hong Kong and Macao to design its industrial development strategy. In comparison with Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao, it is not difficult to find that the development of the financial industry of Zhuhai is still weak, and it does not have direct competitive advantages in such area. Zhuhai should play a supporting role in financial area, focusing on the development of other industries, and setting foot on complementary and differentiated development road.
浅析中韩经贸合作中FTA的建立
An Analysis on Establishment of FTA in the China-Korea Economic and Trade Cooperation
 [PDF]

杨亚楠,
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2014, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2014.42003
Abstract:
自1992年两国建交以来,中韩两国积极开展经贸合作,贸易形式从间接贸易转为直接贸易,贸易额迅速增加,经济互补性逐渐增强,双方已经互为重要的投资对象。但是,随着两国之间日趋成熟的贸易发展,越来越多的问题从现状中暴露出来,例如贸易逆差和贸易摩擦。因此,本论文通过对中韩贸易经济现状以及进行贸易往来时出现的问题的研究分析,探讨两国之间建立自由贸易区,即FTA(Free Trade Area)的可行性,并简要分析FTA对中韩双方经济的影响。最后,就以上对FTA的分析结果简要提出建议。
China and South Korea carried out economic cooperation actively since 1992 when the diplomacy between the two countries was established. The trade forms have converted from indirect trade to direct one, and therefore the value of trade has increased rapidly, and the economic complemen-tarities between the two countries have been enhanced gradually. The two sides have become important investment objects for each other. However, with the development of trade, more and more problems were exposed, such as trade friction and trade deficit. Therefore, this thesis makes exploration for the feasibility of establishing Free Trade Area between the two countries, referred as FTA, based on the current situations and problems in the trade. Moreover, the impact of the es-tablishment of FTA on the economy of both China and South Korea will also be analyzed briefly. Finally, the thesis proposes policy suggestions briefly through the analysis of these results.
深圳房地产价格波动因素研究
Research of Shenzhen Estate Price Fluctuation Factors
 [PDF]

王佳馨,
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2016, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2016.62002
Abstract:
自从上世纪90年代以来,我国逐渐推行货币化住房制度以后,我国的房地产业快速发展,推动经济拉动内需并成为国民经济的支柱性产业。房价的飞速上涨对于国家经济的发展,人民的正常生活都造成了巨大影响。目前,我国经济处于转折点,房地产行业正在加速调整。因此,研究影响房地产价格成因对于当下的中国尤其具有迫切性和必要性。对于中国房地产而言,以北上广深的一线城市房价涨幅尤为剧烈,以上城市房价对当地的经济一方面带来正面影响,另一方面,也带来了巨大的负面影响。因此本文将深圳作为研究对象,从国内外研究进行综述,对于影响房地产价格的因素作出深刻剖析,在此基础上利用2004~2013数据,运用相关性分析和线性回归分析进行实证研究。研究发现(以深圳为例)大学生应届毕业人口数,年均商品房销售面积,人均可支配收入,居民消费价格指数对于房地产价格的影响。并提出处理改善和防范措施,对症下药,使得房地产业更好的发展。
Since the beginning of 90’s of the last century, after the gradual implementation of the monetary housing system in China, the estate industry has developed rapidly, and promoted economy to boost domestic demand, which becomes a pillar industry of the national economy. The rapid in-crease in housing price has a great impact on the country’s economic development and people’s normal life. At present, due to the China’s economy at a turning point, the estate industry is acce-lerating adjustment. Therefore, it is urgent and necessary to study the causes influencing estate price. For China’s real estate, housing price is increasing greatly in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, bringing positive influence on the local economy, and also negative influence. So this article takes Shenzhen as the research object, reviews from researches at home and abroad, to analyze the factors influencing real estate price, and based on the 2004-2013 data, empirical research is carried out using correlation and linear regression analysis. Study finds that (a case study of Shenzhen) the number of fresh graduates, average annual estate sales area, per capita disposable income, consumer price index influence the real estate price. Moreover, process im-provements and preventive measures are proposed, for better development of real estate.
科技创新之影响因素分析——以专利申请数量为例
The Influence Factor of Scientific and Technological Innovation—Taking an Example of the Number of Patent Applications
 [PDF]

安小桐,
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2016, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2016.61001
Abstract:
对于一国科技创新能力的考量,大部分的研究者采用了发明、实用新型专利申请数量为评价指标,这一指标对科技创新能力的判断量化、可视化。本文就以发明、实用新型专利国际标准分类申请量为被解释变量,研究实验发展经费支出、研究发展人员数量以及图书出版情况这三个变量为解释变量,运用来源于国家统计局1995年至2014年的统计数据,利用最小二乘原理建立模型,分析了模型反映出的潜在问题,并给出了一些促进专利申请数量和提高科技创新能力可行性建议,例如应当继续加大科研经费的投入,逐步提高科研经费利用率,尽快调整高等教育下的人才培养制度,完善科研人员的绩效考核制度等。
Most researchers take the number of invention patent applications which accord with the international standard as a measurement to value the ability of science and technology innovation for a country, which visualizes the abstract definition into a measurable one. This paper, using the least squares principle, adopts the number of applications of invention and utility patents according to international standard classification (1995 to 2014 years), research and development spending, the quantity of research and development people at that time, and book publishing data to build an econometric analysis of relationship between the data. And the model is set up to find out the possible problems of the social reality, and to provide possible solutions to such problems. We should increase investment in scientific research funds, enhance the investment’s coefficient of utilization, adjust the personnel training system and change the performance appraisal system of scientific research personnel.
浅谈SARS与危害公共卫生罪
,陈彬
中国公共卫生 , 2003, DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2003-19-07-05
Abstract: ?为有效控制SARS的传播,2003年4月8号,经国务院批准下发了《卫生部关于将传染性非典型性肺炎列入法定管理传染病的通知》,SARS的防治被正式纳入传染病防治法律体系.但对违反SARS引发的刑事责任如何认定,尚存在法律争议.本文结合相关法律法规作简要分析探讨.
江西与浙江信息差距原因及解决措施研究
,春花
图书情报工作 , 2010,
Abstract: ?地区之间信息差距的拉大,一方面影响我国信息化水平的整体提高;另一方面也制约着信息化水平低的地区各方面的发展,解决信息差距问题须找出产生信息差距原因。主要从经济、技术、制度政策、人文环境4方面,分析江西与浙江两个地区存在信息差距原因,并提出相应措施,以期为缩小两个地区信息差距,从而缩小数字鸿沟。
强光与自由电子的相互作用——半导体中载流子的多光子过程

物理学报 , 1965,
Abstract: 本文讨论了半导体中载流子与laser光的相互作用。把电子运动分成带内运动与带间跃迁两部分后,我们证明了在强光下,电子在带内运动的状态仍可用准动量p来标志,但不再是通常的稳定态,波函数中包含一个描述强迫运动的因子。进一步以带间跃迁或其他带内过程作为微扰,由于在跃迁过程中强迫运动部分也改变,因此伴随着有多光子的吸收或发射。根据一般的讨论,我们计算了由电声子作用引起的自由载流子吸收及由价带到导带的直接多光子跃迁的吸收系数。粗略估计表明,在一些材料中,上述过程引起的双光子吸收是可以被观察到的,特别是Ge中的直接双光子吸收。我们还指出,利用一束laser光射到晶体上后,可以在红外区域看到激子吸收线,从而提高了分辨率,并具体地分析了CdSe中激子吸收的情况。
用光学方法实现么正变换及一般线性变换(Ⅳ)——图形识别及投影算子

物理学报 , 1980,
Abstract: 本文指出,图形识别实质上是图形空间中的表象变换(坐标系变换)。由于表象变换是通过么正变换实现的,用光学方法进行图形识别是比较合适的。本文着重讨论了如何只根据所需识别的标准图形组,构造光学系统,即用光学方法直接实现投影变换的方法。并进一步发展了文献3]中的优化方法。
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